Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 33.485828 36.112024 38.963683 42.311841 46.163721 50.491652 55.773418
2025-05-11 29.400483 32.865813 36.868818 41.909572 48.200544 55.957030 66.525138
2025-05-18 26.725885 30.549922 35.144136 41.204242 49.209273 59.781552 75.507525
2025-05-25 24.717792 28.717239 33.663603 40.423129 49.761939 62.817465 83.793957
2025-06-01 23.179186 27.283670 32.481094 39.796091 50.299212 65.746354 92.434403
2025-06-08 21.752719 25.860641 31.157617 38.786933 50.085756 67.418074 99.320209
2025-06-15 21.313632 25.669947 31.423080 39.970752 53.182010 74.706609 118.309373
2025-06-22 20.494914 24.907841 30.834287 39.837257 54.195571 78.688439 132.311431
2025-06-29 19.612352 24.001164 29.972141 39.202217 54.296837 81.038699 143.664770
2025-07-06 18.684654 22.981682 28.883534 38.125195 53.526552 81.617818 151.059989
2025-07-13 18.474779 22.940552 29.185369 39.209154 56.542050 90.068531 183.120739
2025-07-20 18.195192 22.781077 29.295724 39.986127 59.106297 98.215103 220.558342
2025-07-27 17.782678 22.425119 29.111610 40.301189 60.936715 105.426921 262.785009
2025-08-03 17.228234 21.839357 28.547776 39.937586 61.431687 109.706595 299.015133
2025-08-10 16.647525 21.189226 27.848899 39.286140 61.272639 112.345223 331.721972
2025-08-17 16.091645 20.553142 27.139632 38.563864 60.884148 114.320368 364.679214
2025-08-24 15.605339 20.001530 26.535811 37.983550 60.723186 116.905126 406.861806
2025-08-31 15.070022 19.358430 25.760289 37.048638 59.714508 116.894683 432.743842
2025-09-07 15.008530 19.421286 26.104261 38.145241 63.223587 131.295217 622.926893
2025-09-14 14.694307 19.088923 25.795812 38.021663 64.004267 137.556753 773.907128
2025-09-21 14.303656 18.627057 25.257360 37.433511 63.648369 139.939595 893.818833
2025-09-28 13.850822 18.057266 24.522337 36.434941 62.234402 138.282235 940.960889
2025-10-05 13.812997 18.123230 24.832462 37.439939 65.718656 155.856630 1707.259274